Lian Ping: The Central Economic Work Conference released a strong financial afterburner signal to lower the RRR or cut interest rates at the end of this year or early next year. Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and president of the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said in an interview that the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that "a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented" and "lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates at the right time", which means that it is expected to intensify next year. Combined with the current domestic and international situation and liquidity situation, it is expected that the RRR cut and interest rate cut will land at the end of this year and early next year. Regarding "exploring and expanding the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank", Lian Ping believes that, on the one hand, the monetary policy should be reasonable and moderate, with a steady pace, so as to avoid a big deviation from market demand; On the other hand, monetary policy should explore and expand related fields and innovate constantly in maintaining financial stability. The functional connotation of the subsequent central bank is expected to be further enriched, and its coverage function may be extended to the whole financial field. "Next, whether it is the real estate market or the stock market, we need to build a long-term mechanism for financial stability." Lian Ping said. (SSE)Guo Liyan, Institute of Economics, China Macroeconomic Research Institute: It is a long-term and fundamental policy to continuously promote the construction of ultra-large-scale domestic market. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said in an interview that expanding domestic demand in an all-round way and continuously promoting the construction of super-large-scale domestic market are not just temporary measures to cope with risks and external shocks, but long-term and fundamental measures to promote Chinese modernization. The key is to boost consumption and improve the efficiency of investment, so that effective investment and potential consumption can form a virtuous cycle promotion mechanism, thereby consolidating and enhancing the main role of domestic demand in supporting the national economic cycle, and giving full play to the powerful supporting role of domestic demand for high-quality economic development and higher-level participation in international competition and cooperation. (The country is a through train)NATO Secretary General Rutte: We will need to spend far more than 2% of GDP on national defense.
Analysis: The initial application data in the United States unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose last week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase at the end of November compared with the beginning of the year, due to the cooling of labor demand. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week of December 7, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 242,000 after seasonal adjustment. Economists had expected that the number of initial jobless claims last week was only 220,000. The jump in initial jobless claims last week may reflect the fluctuation after the Thanksgiving holiday, but it may not mark a sudden change in the job market. The number of initial jobless claims may still fluctuate in the next few weeks, which may make it difficult to understand the job market clearly.The European Central Bank expects inflation to cool down faster. It is reported that the European Central Bank now expects inflation to cool down slightly faster than the forecast in September. It currently predicts that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the statement, the European Central Bank also said: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track."European members of NATO are considering increasing the proportion of military expenditure. On the 12th, several European officials reported that some European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are considering increasing the proportion of national defense expenditure in their gross domestic product (GDP), from the current 2% to 3%.
European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank did not discuss neutral interest rates this week. Many things will become clear in the next few months, not in the next few weeks.Central Economic Work Conference: Expanding high-level opening to the outside world and stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. The meeting proposed to expand independent opening and unilateral opening in an orderly manner, steadily expand institutional opening, promote the free trade pilot zone to improve quality and efficiency and expand the reform mandate, and accelerate the implementation of the core policy of Hainan Free Trade Port. Actively develop service trade, green trade and digital trade. Deepen the reform of foreign investment promotion system and mechanism. We will steadily open up the service industry, expand pilot projects in the fields of telecommunications, medical care and education, and continue to build the brand of "Invest in China". Promote high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road", deepen and improve the overseas comprehensive service system. (Xinhua News Agency)Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank: The Transmission Protection Tool (TPI) was not discussed.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14